Will Wuhan's new coronavirus pneumonia become
a global epidemic?
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More than a month ago, a new coronavirus outbreak broke out
from China and has now spread to more than 20 countries. The key
question for experts is how wide the spread will be and how many people will
get sick. No global epidemic has yet been announced, but the new
coronavirus pneumonia may become the next epidemic that has to be faced
globally. Governments and various institutions are preparing for this.
What is a global epidemic?
A global epidemic refers to an infectious disease that
threatens many people around the world at the same time. The most recent
example is the 2009 H1N1 flu (swine flu), which experts believe has caused
thousands of deaths.
If it is a completely new virus that can easily infect humans
and spread from person to person in an effective and sustainable manner, then
it is more likely to trigger a global epidemic.
The new coronavirus appears to meet all of the above
conditions.
With no vaccines or effective treatments available to prevent
the disease, controlling its spread is vital.
When will the global epidemic be announced?
According to the World Health Organization's description of
the "global epidemic," the new coronavirus is only one step away
from becoming a global epidemic.
The new coronavirus is transmitted from person to person, and
cases have occurred in many neighboring countries in China and
beyond. If we start to see ongoing community-level outbreaks in multiple
locations around the world, this will be a global epidemic.
How likely is it?
It is not clear how serious the infectious disease is and how
far it can spread.
The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tan
Desai, said the spread of the virus outside China so far looks "less and
slower." Currently, there are more than 20,000 confirmed cases of
new type of coronavirus pneumonia in China, and the death toll has reached
more than 420. There are more than 150 confirmed cases outside China,
and one infected person in the Philippines has died.
"If we strike at the source and center of the epidemic,
it will rarely be very slow to spread to other countries," Tandersee
said on Monday.
Every global epidemic is different, and it is impossible to
predict the full impact of the virus before it begins to spread. Experts
suspect that the lethality of the new coronavirus may be lower than other
infectious diseases that have broken out in recent years, such as atypical
pneumonia (SARS).
The World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Committee held a
meeting last Thursday (January 30) to announce that China's new coronavirus
epidemic constitutes a public health emergency of international concern
(PHEIC). The decision was made by the WHO mainly because of
human-to-human transmission outside of China and concerns about the
consequences of the virus reaching countries with weak health systems.
The World Health Organization says that while countries should
take action to prevent and limit the further spread of the virus, there is no
reason to take unnecessary measures to interfere with international travel
and trade.
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